VMworld 2006 Interesting Stats

I think I captured most of the relevant stats but I may have missed a few.

Revenue growth:

  • 2001 – 8 Million
  • 2002 – 22 Million
  • 2003 – 76 Million
  • 2004 – 218 Million
  • 2005 – 387 Million
  • 2006 (3 Quarters)- 477 Million

Revenue breakdown:

  • 2005 – 82% from partners
  • 2006 – 85% from partners

60% of Virtual Infrastructure implementations are on SAN infrastructure

Estimated Terabytes directly driven by virtualization:

  • 2004 – 8 TB
  • 2005 – 26 TB
  • 2006 – 61 TB
  • 2007 – 126 TB

Average Deal Size:

  • 2004 – 13K
  • 2005 – 37K
  • 2006 – 50K
  • Services drag of 4X

Partners who do VMware and Microsoft services related work will make more money on VMware services than they will on Microsoft related services.

Partners are reporting 23% account base penetration estimated to grow to 45% over the next 2 years.

Market is made up of 38 million x86 servers VMware is installed on 4%.

“ILM for the SMB”

ILM or Information Lifecycle Management has been in full swing now for about 3 years and I am going to go out on a limb and state that most organizations have not yet implemented an “ILM” strategy. I believe the reason this is the case is because “ILM” is in fact a vision that has been interpreted and evangelized by many vendors as a strategy.

I presented a session at Storage Networking World in Orlando last week entitled “ILM for the SMB”. This is a scary proposition, most enterprise class organizations have leveraged “ILM” to implement tiered storage strategies and transparent data movement through the use of software to migrate data based on simple taxonomy like last access date, file type, owner, etch… Is there any value in an “ILM” strategy for the the average SMB (Small and Medium Business) who can store their entire data requirements, including overhead for protection on on 3 to 5 disk drives? I think the answer is pretty clear as I stated during the presentation “put all of your data on tier 1 storage and call it a day. you can always add a drive when you run out of space”. Because I was honestly at a loss on how to confidently articulate the value of “ILM” for the SMB I offered up a new definition for the SMB where the “I” in “ILM” changes from “Information” to “Infrastructure”. Many SMBs suffer from what I call the eBusiness syndrome, an epidemic feed by the likes of CDW and Dell . These users buy technology from distributors who offer little or no coaching on the applicability of the technologies or how to extract value from the technology, thus many SMBs find themselves replacing technology or purchasing point solutions and building infrastructures held together for scotch tape and chewing gum. A “Total Solutions” approach where the entire infrastructure is addressed is where SMBs will find the most value when amortized over a reasonable period of time. The ability to cost effectively address enterprise class problems on an SMB budget requires coaching and often a partner who can function less as technology salesman and more as an analyst, helping SMB customer avoid disposable technology, extending the lifespan of the infrastructure and add enterprise class functionality where appropriate.

Below I have paraphrased an example that I gave during my SNW session:

How many SMBs are still running Microsoft Exchange 5.5 even though support is EOL? Why? Cost prohibitive to migrate? Customers running Exchange 2000 or 2003 are probably running on 32bit x86 architecture. Microsoft will release Exchange 2007 on 64bit x86 architecture only, what does this mean? It means that the SMB going from 5.5, 2000 and 2003 will be spending significant dollars to facilitate a painful upgrade process to 2007, potentially investing in new hardware, new OS licensing, new storage capacity, directory services work and finally the Exchange migration work. This is not so bad for the customer who has been running Exchange 5.5 on a Pentium II and NT 4.0 for 8 years (they have gotten their monies worth) but how about the guy who bought a new 32bit server from CDW 2 months ago because Exchange 2000 was running slow, well bad news, support for Exchange 2000 will be EOL and Exchange 2007 requires 64bit architecture. That is the definition of disposable technology.

Reality is that the SMB needs help with “Infrastructure Lifecycle Management”. The ability to predict and extend a solutions life cycle while balancing budget with quality and functionality adds tangible value today, this is not a vision but a strategy which can be applied in a tactical manner.

While today there are few compelling reasons for the SMB to determine how to apply the “ILM” vision to their corporate information infrastructure that may be changing. See my follow-up post entitled “ILM and eRisk”.

The eve of VMworld 2006

On the eve of VMware 2006 I though I should post a blog. Nothing much to say other than I expect this to be an active blog week. I will be logging directly from VMworld hopefully in real time. Couple of thoughts to start the week off.

First I need to vent about the schedule builder schedule builder – I feel like I am eighteen again registering for college classes. Typically as the week progresses at these things I like to solicit feedback from other attendees and it’s nice to be able to morph my schedule and stay away from the sessions that suck, this is kind of hard when I need to be “on the list” – Is this a tech conference or a night club. I think someone needs to take a lesson from their big brother and have a format that closer resembles EMC World (previously the EMC Technology Summit) which in my opinion is probably one of the best run technology conferences going.

Looking forward to a few sessions this week, in particular:

  • VMware Community Source Update & Opportunities
  • VMware and Hardware Assist Technology (Intel VT and AMD
    Pacifica)
  • SDK Programming
  • mark: A Scalable Benchmark for Virtualized Systems
  • Virtualization Management APIs: VMware, DMTF and Xen
  • VIX Programming
  • VMware Lab Manager: Technical Sales Overview
    • Little worried about the depth of this session, could be weak.

In case you have not noticed I am really interesting in information related to the extensibility of VI3 because I believe there is significant value in creating elegant solutions by getting outside the box.

See you all there and have a great week.

Gubuntu???

Sitting in my room at SNW (Storage Networking World) and and I thought I would blog about an interesting conversation from last evening about Linux on the desktop mostly because the person I had the conversation with seemed intrigued, so much that we have a follow-up conversation today in the hallway.  The discussion was over Gubuntu the rumored Google flavor of the popular Ubuntu Linux Distro.  As a huge advocate and user of Ubuntu I can honestly say it is by a large stretch the best desktop Linux distribution to date.  I have been using Linux since the early 90s and started on kernel version 0.98 or 0.99, I can’t remember.  I do remember downloading the 24 or so floppies @14400 baud that made up the Slackware distribution that I would then install on my 386.  The entire process was laborious.   Ahhhhh…. But once it was up and running what a feeling of accomplishment.  I remember our dorm room network using NE2000 ISA cards and coax cable, I am starting to feel like a geek.  The good old days.  Since the early days I have tried just about every distribution, early on I flip-flopped between Slackware and Yggdrasil, then I moved onto Debian and even gave Corel Linux (now Xandros, which I have run as well) a shot, next was the likes of Caldera, RedHat, SuSE, Mandrake (now Mandriva).  Caldera went away and RedHat/Fedora/CentOS, SuSE and Mandrake all became bloated, the thing I always hated about Microsoft.  I then moved onto Gentoo and finally now Ununtu.  I have to say the Debian based Ubuntu distribution is incredible.  Returning  to the topic of the post, Internet banter confirms that Google is working on a distro called Gubuntu, leveraging applications like Google Earth and Picasa which have already been ported to Linux and the Google Desktop which I am sure will be ported to the Gubuntu release and Internet based applications like Google Spreadsheets and Writely (Now Called Google Docs and Spreadsheets) and of course Gmail.

The Linux desktop push has begun, with titans like Google getting into the space and events like Eric Raymond joining the Freespire Leadership Board we may see an insurgence by Linux in the desktop market.

-RJB

It’s all about business process for the big boys…

IBM’s most recently acquired privately held Palisades Technology Partners. Palisades Technology Partners based in Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey provides technical support to mortgage lenders. The industry goliaths realize that there is significant value in understanding business process and the ability to couple technology solutions with an understanding of business process provides significant value and a trusted relationship with the consumer. IBM since the inception of IGS has done an admirable job execution against their services oriented strategy. Large technology OEMs have near-term decisions to make, do they adopt the IBM/IGS strategy and build out high-value services organizations or do they go the way of Cisco with a focused channel strategy. Both model pose significant challenges, but I believe over time large OEMs will need embrace one of these two models. Should be interesting to watch.

Kudos…

In the midst of what I would call many lack luster decisions, Sun Microsystems has adopted an incredible strategy to drive awareness.  Sun is a first mover in the corporate adoption of YouTube to as a means demonstrate new technologies and message to the YouTube generation.  Sun fostered their phenomenal growth by fueling a SunOS generation through the pervasive deployment of IPC and IPX boxes throughout higher education, I am a product of this tactic.  Once again I think they are on to something revolutionary.  It is impressive to see Andy Bechtolsheim demonstrating Sun technology and obvious to me that Sun values this medium as a way to reach future decisions makers.

-RJB

An interesting perspective on corporate spam

Mark Lewis posted an interesting piece on C-SPAM or Corporate SPAM.  I totally agree we have turned a highly productive tool like Email and morphed it into a productivity prevention system.  Think about returning to the office after a  one week vacation, I take my laptop and blackberry on vacation to weed through junk mail, SPAM and Corporate SPAM to avoid the anxiety of returning to the office and having to sift through hundreds of messages, most of which are meaningless.  Messaging is a great thing and the ability to reach the masses has never been grater, our responsibility is to use the proper mediums to most effectively communicate with our audience.  Email is not the ubiquitous answer to electronic communication!

-RJB

Staying current… Cont’d

On September 6th I posted a blog entitled “Staying current…”. I just started to watch Robert Scoble’s very well done vlog. For those of you who don’t know who Robert Scoble is??? Yes, these people do seem to exist, as bizzarre as this sounds… He is a pioneer in the blogsphere, one of the earliest bloggers at Microsoft to go counter cultural! While working as an technical evangelist Scoble maintained Scobleizer

In the Febuary 15th, 2005 issue of The Economist Scoble’s influence was depicted by this quote:

“He has become a minor celebrity among geeks worldwide, who read his blog religiously. Impressively, he has also succeeded where small armies of more conventional public-relations types have been failing abjectly for years: he has made Microsoft, with its history of monopolistic bullying, appear marginally but noticeably less evil to the outside world, and especially to the independent software developers that are his core audience”

Scoble’s honest unfiltered commentary left uncensored by Microsoft has actually helped better Microsoft’s reputation.

Anyway I am off on that censorship tangent again. Check out the vlog it is very well done and quite informative.

-RJB

EMC acquires NearTek assets…

This post is a bit behind considering Mark Lewis confirmed the acquisition of NearTek’s assets on September 20th, 2006 at the Storage World Conference in Boston.  Nonetheless I thought I would post my thoughts on the acquisition.  For those of you who don’t know who NearTek is they were a VTL startup who sucked up ~80 million in venture capital and built a decent product but failed to gain market traction.  EMC is in a win/win position with this purchase but things look grim for FalconStor.  EMC has be OEMing the FalconStor VTL code (cleaned up, modified and stabilized by EMC but at the most basic level FalconStor) as the CDL or CLARiiON Disk Library since April 2004.  The best case scenario for FalconStor is that EMC continues to OEM their code and uses the threat of NearTek to purchase the FalconStor code at a lower cost.  Worst case is EMC actually plans to replace FalconStor with NearTek in the CDL product line.  EMC’s market share in the VTL space has grown from 4.6% in fall of 2004 to 17% in the spring of 2006, with this type of growth the loss of EMC as a FalconStor partner could have significant impact.  Should be interesting to watch.

-RJB